Sensitivity Analysis of Human Health Surface Water Quality Criteria: A Case Study Using Perfluorooctane Sulfonic Acid.

IF 8.4 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Betsy Ruffle, Gemma Kirkwood, Kelly Vosnakis, Craig W Davis, Paul Koster Van Groos, Anita Thapalia
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Abstract

Human health surface water quality criteria (SWQC) for perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) vary by up to five orders of magnitude between jurisdictions. The current study undertakes a probabilistic analysis to calculate a range of PFOS SWQC and rank input parameters based on their influence on criteria derivation. Probability distributions were used for exposure parameters (e.g., fish consumption rate, body weight, bioaccumulation factors), as well as the noncancer toxicity factor, which itself ranges over three orders of magnitude. Three distributions of the PFOS reference dose were evaluated: one based on animal data, one based on human data, and one based on both animal and human data. Using the three reference dose distributions, the 10th percentile SWQC range from 0.1 ng/L to 3 ng/L. Using the distribution based on human toxicity data only, approximately two thirds of the distribution of SWQC falls below typical analytical detection limits (around 1 ng/L). The sensitivity analysis identified fish consumption rate and PFOS toxicity factor as the most influential parameters, followed by bioaccumulation factors and relative source contribution. The application of probabilistic risk assessment as used in this study provides a useful tool for calculating a range of possible SWQC and understanding the relative importance of input parameters. The method of sensitivity analysis can be adapted to any chemical and target population.

人类健康地表水水质标准敏感性分析:以全氟辛烷磺酸为例
全氟辛烷磺酸(PFOS)的人体健康地表水质量标准(SWQC)在不同司法管辖区之间的差异可达五个数量级。本研究通过概率分析计算全氟辛烷磺酸SWQC的范围,并根据输入参数对准则推导的影响进行排序。暴露参数(例如,鱼类摄取率、体重、生物蓄积因子)以及非癌症毒性因子(其本身的范围超过三个数量级)采用概率分布。评估了全氟辛烷磺酸参考剂量的三种分布:一种基于动物数据,一种基于人类数据,另一种基于动物和人类数据。使用三个参考剂量分布,SWQC的第10百分位范围为0.1 ng/L至3 ng/L。仅使用基于人体毒性数据的分布,大约三分之二的SWQC分布低于典型的分析检测限(约1 ng/L)。敏感性分析发现,鱼类食用量和全氟辛烷磺酸毒性因子是影响最大的参数,其次是生物蓄积因子和相对源贡献。本研究中使用的概率风险评估的应用为计算可能的SWQC范围和理解输入参数的相对重要性提供了一个有用的工具。灵敏度分析方法适用于任何化学物质和目标群体。
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来源期刊
Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management
Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESTOXICOLOGY&nbs-TOXICOLOGY
CiteScore
5.90
自引率
6.50%
发文量
156
期刊介绍: Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management (IEAM) publishes the science underpinning environmental decision making and problem solving. Papers submitted to IEAM must link science and technical innovations to vexing regional or global environmental issues in one or more of the following core areas: Science-informed regulation, policy, and decision making Health and ecological risk and impact assessment Restoration and management of damaged ecosystems Sustaining ecosystems Managing large-scale environmental change Papers published in these broad fields of study are connected by an array of interdisciplinary engineering, management, and scientific themes, which collectively reflect the interconnectedness of the scientific, social, and environmental challenges facing our modern global society: Methods for environmental quality assessment; forecasting across a number of ecosystem uses and challenges (systems-based, cost-benefit, ecosystem services, etc.); measuring or predicting ecosystem change and adaptation Approaches that connect policy and management tools; harmonize national and international environmental regulation; merge human well-being with ecological management; develop and sustain the function of ecosystems; conceptualize, model and apply concepts of spatial and regional sustainability Assessment and management frameworks that incorporate conservation, life cycle, restoration, and sustainability; considerations for climate-induced adaptation, change and consequences, and vulnerability Environmental management applications using risk-based approaches; considerations for protecting and fostering biodiversity, as well as enhancement or protection of ecosystem services and resiliency.
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