Interactive Horizon Scanning of the Forest Bioeconomy With a Nested Business Environment Framework

Abstract

In sectors based on renewable resources, foresight studies have often been macro-scale, quantitative outlook studies. As a result, in the complex operating environment of the forest bioeconomy, the organizations and professionals of the emerging bioeconomic sector have not been able to fully utilize futures information in their decision-making processes. This study sought to find solutions to this issue by utilizing a nested business environment framework (NEST framework) in signal interpretation as part of piloting interactive horizon scanning of the forest bioeconomy. In interaction with a diverse group of forest bioeconomy stakeholders, the horizon scanning exercise collected and interpreted signals of change. The aim was to increase forest bioeconomy actors' sense of ownership towards signals information. This study discusses strengths and weaknesses of interactive horizon scanning in the context of the forest bioeconomy and raises awareness of the opportunities and challenges of using a NEST framework in signal interpretation. The study contributes to the analytical tools and has practical implications for interpreting signals of change in the forest bioeconomy and other sectors based on renewable resources. According to the results, the NEST framework used in signal interpretation has strengths, but revealing its full potential requires further development. These developments may include the application of the framework in concrete, timely stakeholder contexts, both involving forest bioeconomy actors and a necessary outside-in perspective from other sectors.