Travel time reliability, psychological choice mechanisms, sustainable transport decisions and smart urban development

Abstract

Existing land use-transportation interaction (LUTI) models largely overlooked important choice mechanisms that shape travel decision making under uncertainty, such as risk attitude and ambiguity attitude. Within a LUTI model, this study embeds a behavioral framework which accommodates the two behavioral elements into a spatial general equilibrium model. In this improved LUTI model, endogenous commuting costs are influenced by commuters’ choice behaviors in the presence of travel time variability inherent in transport systems, and, more importantly, choice outcomes are jointly determined by their taste preferences and ambiguity/risk attitudes. We then apply the model system to an Australian city, where our baseline results, compared to a conventional model that omits risk and ambiguity attitudes, align closely with observed market evidence. This alignment reinforces the validity of our behaviorally realistic modeling approach. Furthermore, simulations of improved travel time reliability reveal the potential to smart development by promoting sustainable travel and urban growth. Our findings underscore the critical role of psychological choice mechanisms in deepening the understanding of travel behavior dynamics and land use patterns. Based on the study evidence, we offer both case-specific suggestions and broader policy implications.