Pre-Qin Period Settlement Development in the Li River Basin in China: Environmental Factors and Predictive Modeling

Abstract

This study utilizes behavioral ecology theory, particularly the Ideal Free Distribution model, to investigate how pre-Qin communities strategically chose their settlement locations in the Li River Basin of northeastern Guangdong Province. By employing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to analyze 134 archaeological sites, we aim to determine whether settlement patterns reflect individual optimization decisions within the framework of environmental constraints. The hypothesis is that communities initially settled in the highest-ranked habitats and subsequently moved to lower-ranked areas as population density increased. The research involves digital terrain analysis, hydrological analysis, and examination of the environmental context of these 134 archaeological sites. The findings reveal that settlements are strategically clustered between 100 and 300 m elevation, avoiding flood-prone lowlands while maintaining access to water resources, with preferences for gentle 2–6° slopes suitable for agriculture and southeast-facing aspects that optimized solar exposure and wind protection. Hydrological analysis indicates settlements favored locations 200–500 m from third and fourth-order streams, demonstrating sophisticated water management strategies. Environmental analysis shows a transition from dispersed to concentrated settlement patterns across four chronological phases, reflecting a shift from hunting-gathering to agricultural societies. Using binary logistic regression, a predictive model was developed, achieving over 50 % accuracy in identifying potential site locations. The study demonstrates how individual settlement decisions, while consistently optimizing environmental advantages, evolved from broader habitat utilization in early phases to concentrated occupation of prime agricultural locations in later periods. This pattern supports the predictions of the Ideal Free Distribution model and illustrates how farmers redefined habitat suitability rankings instead of eliminating environmental constraints.