Exploring thresholds and drivers of water-energy-food nexus across China: Insights from 2005 to 2020

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI:10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102660

Duoduo Zhou , Qiang Li , Yaping Wang , Xinyue Zhang , Xiaoqian Xu , Han Zhang , Fubo Zhao , Dengfeng Liu , Weiguo Liu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Study region

This study is conducted at the provincial level in mainland China from 2005 to 2020.

Study focus

The water-energy-food (WEF) nexus is fundamental to sustainable development of human-nature systems, yet whether its evolving drivers exhibit threshold remains poorly understood. To address this gap, we developed an indicator-based analytical framework to quantify the sustainable levels of WEF nexus. We applied K-means clustering to identify regional patterns, used the Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) model to assess inter-sectoral synergy, and conducted threshold regression to explore the threshold of the key drivers.

New Hydrological Insights for the Region

Four clusters were identified based on divergent sustainable levels across WEF sectors. While the performance of WEF sectors and the CCD of the nexus significantly improved, marked heterogeneities persisted across these clusters. For Cluster 1, a CCD threshold was observed in 2017 when per capita consumption and urbanization rates reached 20,417 yuan and 53.3 %, respectively. For Cluster 3, a threshold manifested in 2007 when the NDVI reached 0.7. In Cluster 4, a threshold occurred in 2010 when the proportion of environmental investment reached 1.7 %. Threshold analysis suggests that enhancing key drivers in regions below the threshold could significantly improve WEF nexus synergy. Furthermore, evolving WEF dynamics reduce policy effectiveness, necessitating adaptive region-specific strategies. These findings provide valuable insights for tailoring resource management and development strategies in China’s diverse regions.

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中国水-能-粮关系的阈值与驱动：2005 - 2020年的洞察

研究区域本研究是在2005 - 2020年中国大陆的省级层面进行的。研究重点：水-能量-食物（WEF）关系是人类-自然系统可持续发展的基础，但人们对其不断发展的驱动因素是否表现出阈值仍知之甚少。为了解决这一差距，我们开发了一个基于指标的分析框架来量化世界经济论坛关系的可持续水平。采用K-means聚类方法识别区域模式，采用耦合协调度（CCD）模型评估部门间协同效应，并采用阈值回归方法探索关键驱动因素的阈值。根据世界经济论坛各部门不同的可持续水平，确定了第四区域集群的新水文见解。虽然世界经济论坛各部门的表现和联系的CCD显著改善，但这些集群之间仍然存在明显的异质性。对于集群1，在2017年观察到一个CCD阈值，当时人均消费和城市化率分别达到20,417元和53.3% %。对于第三类，阈值出现在2007年NDVI达到0.7时。在集群4中，2010年环境投资占比达到1.7 %时出现了一个阈值。阈值分析表明，提升阈值以下区域的关键驱动因素，可以显著提高世界经济论坛联结协同效应。此外，不断变化的世界经济论坛动态降低了政策的有效性，因此需要有针对性的适应性区域战略。这些发现为中国不同地区的资源管理和发展战略提供了有价值的见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

6.70

自引率

8.50%

发文量

284

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies publishes original research papers enhancing the science of hydrology and aiming at region-specific problems, past and future conditions, analysis, review and solutions. The journal particularly welcomes research papers that deliver new insights into region-specific hydrological processes and responses to changing conditions, as well as contributions that incorporate interdisciplinarity and translational science.