Short-Term Effects of Meteorological Factors on Severe Fever With Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Incidence in Xinyang, China

Abstract

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is a tick-borne zoonotic disease, which are classified by the World Health Organization as a priority disease for research and development in emergency situations due to the high mortality rate. Previous studies indicated that the complex nonlinear and delayed association was observed between meteorological factors and SFTS. However, these did not consider the short-term effect of meteorological factors on the incidence of SFTS. In this study, we used generalized additive models (GAM) and distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) to investigate the short-term correlation between meteorological factors and SFTS incidence. From 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2023 a total of 6,601 cases of SFTS were reported in Xinyang. Females constituted the majority with a male-to-female ratio of 0.68 and the average age of cases being approximately at around 61.52 years old. The multivariate GAM analysis revealed that mean temperature exerted the greatest influence on the incidence of SFTS compared to other meteorological factors and interacted with these factors. After accounting for lag period of 0–14 days, the DLNM analysis indicated that specific range of temperature (18–23°C), a certain range atmospheric pressure (1,006–1,017 hPa), extreme high wind speed (>11.6 m/s), and prolonged sunshine duration (>9h) were associated with SFTS, while there was no significant correlation between relative humidity and the incidence of SFTS. This study investigates the non-linear trend and lagged exposure effect of various meteorological factors on short-term SFTS incidence, thereby enhancing our comprehensive understanding of the effect of meteorological factors on SFTS.