Evaluating the potential to reduce the global demand for polymers

IF 10.9 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL

Resources Conservation and Recycling Pub Date : 2025-08-04 DOI:10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108518

Yunhu Gao , André Cabrera Serrenho

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The widespread use of polymers leads to several environmental challenges, particularly greenhouse gas emissions and ecosystem contamination. Yet, the global mitigation potential of possible interventions has not yet been quantified. This requires a high-resolution model to anticipate the future demand for polymers, and the potential impacts of demand reduction and recycling. Here, we present such a model to estimate the production, trade, consumption, and the accumulation in service of 14 polymers across eight world regions. The results show that current trends could lead to doubling the annual global demand and waste generation of polymers by 2100. But increased demand could be avoided by either limiting the stock of polymers in service globally or by maximising the deployment of mechanical and chemical recycling technologies. A reduction in demand for polymers from current levels seems challenging, which may present additional obstacles to the decarbonization of this sector.

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评估减少全球聚合物需求的潜力

聚合物的广泛使用导致了一些环境挑战，特别是温室气体排放和生态系统污染。然而，可能的干预措施的全球缓解潜力尚未量化。这需要一个高分辨率的模型来预测未来对聚合物的需求，以及需求减少和回收的潜在影响。在这里，我们提出了这样一个模型来估计14种聚合物在世界8个地区的生产、贸易、消费和服务积累。研究结果表明，目前的趋势可能导致到2100年全球聚合物的年需求量和废物产生量翻一番。但是，增加的需求可以通过限制全球服务中的聚合物库存或最大限度地部署机械和化学回收技术来避免。从目前的水平减少对聚合物的需求似乎具有挑战性，这可能会给该部门的脱碳带来额外的障碍。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Resources Conservation and Recycling 环境科学-工程：环境

CiteScore

22.90

自引率

6.10%

发文量

625

审稿时长

23 days

期刊介绍： The journal Resources, Conservation & Recycling welcomes contributions from research, which consider sustainable management and conservation of resources. The journal prioritizes understanding the transformation processes crucial for transitioning toward more sustainable production and consumption systems. It highlights technological, economic, institutional, and policy aspects related to specific resource management practices such as conservation, recycling, and resource substitution, as well as broader strategies like improving resource productivity and restructuring production and consumption patterns. Contributions may address regional, national, or international scales and can range from individual resources or technologies to entire sectors or systems. Authors are encouraged to explore scientific and methodological issues alongside practical, environmental, and economic implications. However, manuscripts focusing solely on laboratory experiments without discussing their broader implications will not be considered for publication in the journal.