Natural disasters, missing pupils: Evidence from colonial Jamaica’s school system

IF 1.7 1区历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Explorations in Economic History Pub Date : 2025-07-26 DOI:10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101710

Joel Huesler

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper quantifies how large-scale natural shocks impede human-capital accumulation when state capacity is weak. I assemble a new monthly panel (1892–1942) linking parish attendance, exam scores, and six-hourly HURDAT wind fields. Exploiting quasi-random timing and storm trajectories, I estimate causal impacts with (i) a distributed-lag DiD, (ii) a stacked event study, and (iii) a continuous-intensity triple-difference design. A category 2 hurricane cuts attendance by 3.6% and test scores by 3%, 90% of the exam loss flowing through storm-induced absences. Losses are larger in high-volatility, urban, and agriculture-dependent parishes; each prior hurricane since 1892 leaves a −1.4 pp legacy drop in attendance. Results are robust to alternative metrics, population-weighted damage, placebos, and Fisher tests.

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自然灾害，失踪学生：来自牙买加殖民时期学校系统的证据

本文量化了在国家能力较弱的情况下，大规模自然灾害如何阻碍人力资本积累。我组装了一个新的月度面板（1892-1942），将教区出勤率、考试成绩和每6小时的HURDAT风场联系起来。利用准随机时间和风暴轨迹，我用(I)分布滞后DiD，（ii）堆叠事件研究，以及（iii）连续强度三差设计来估计因果影响。2级飓风使出勤率下降3.6%，考试成绩下降3%，90%的考试损失是由于风暴导致的缺课。在高波动性、城市和依赖农业的教区，损失更大；自1892年以来，每次飓风都会导致出席人数下降1.4个百分点。结果对替代指标、人口加权损害、安慰剂和Fisher检验都是稳健的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Explorations in Economic History Multiple-

CiteScore

2.50

自引率

8.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： Explorations in Economic History provides broad coverage of the application of economic analysis to historical episodes. The journal has a tradition of innovative applications of theory and quantitative techniques, and it explores all aspects of economic change, all historical periods, all geographical locations, and all political and social systems. The journal includes papers by economists, economic historians, demographers, geographers, and sociologists. Explorations in Economic History is the only journal where you will find "Essays in Exploration." This unique department alerts economic historians to the potential in a new area of research, surveying the recent literature and then identifying the most promising issues to pursue.