A novel hybrid model for long-term wind power forecasting base on adaptive distribution shift and low-noise feature enhancement

IF 4.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC

Electric Power Systems Research Pub Date : 2025-08-04 DOI:10.1016/j.epsr.2025.111952

Yan Chen , Yuhan Yang , Rongbin Liu , Haochong Wei , MiaoLin Yu , Jin Su , Xiaochun Hu , YiMing Qin , Jie Lin

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Accurate long-term Wind Power Forecasting (WPF) is crucial for electricity market operations, yet it is challenged by wind power randomness and non-stationarity. We propose the Adaptive Shift Time Series-Efficient Frequency Processing and Compression (ASTS-EFPC) model to address two key issues: 1) ASTS dynamically segments time series via maximum entropy principles to mitigate distribution shifts, and 2) EFPC compresses history using Legendre polynomials while suppressing noise via low-pass filtering. Experiments demonstrate ASTS-EFPC reduces MAE by 47.1% and MSE by 10.68% versus benchmarks, with ASTS alone improving baseline models by up to 62.99% (MSE) and 78.16% (MAE).

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基于自适应分布移位和低噪声特征增强的风电长期预测混合模型

准确的风电长期预测对电力市场运行至关重要，但风电的随机性和非平稳性对长期预测提出了挑战。我们提出了自适应移位时间序列-高效频率处理和压缩（ASTS-EFPC）模型来解决两个关键问题：1)ASTS通过最大熵原理动态分割时间序列以减轻分布移位；2)EFPC使用勒让德多项式压缩历史，同时通过低通滤波抑制噪声。实验表明，与基准模型相比，sts - efpc模型的MAE和MSE分别降低了47.1%和10.68%，其中仅sts模型就分别提高了62.99% （MSE）和78.16% （MAE）。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Electric Power Systems Research 工程技术-工程：电子与电气

CiteScore

7.50

自引率

17.90%

发文量

963

审稿时长

3.8 months

期刊介绍： Electric Power Systems Research is an international medium for the publication of original papers concerned with the generation, transmission, distribution and utilization of electrical energy. The journal aims at presenting important results of work in this field, whether in the form of applied research, development of new procedures or components, orginal application of existing knowledge or new designapproaches. The scope of Electric Power Systems Research is broad, encompassing all aspects of electric power systems. The following list of topics is not intended to be exhaustive, but rather to indicate topics that fall within the journal purview. • Generation techniques ranging from advances in conventional electromechanical methods, through nuclear power generation, to renewable energy generation. • Transmission, spanning the broad area from UHV (ac and dc) to network operation and protection, line routing and design. • Substation work: equipment design, protection and control systems. • Distribution techniques, equipment development, and smart grids. • The utilization area from energy efficiency to distributed load levelling techniques. • Systems studies including control techniques, planning, optimization methods, stability, security assessment and insulation coordination.