Future Climate-Driven Ecological Disruption in a Network of Marine Protected Areas on Canada's East Coast

Abstract

Climate-induced species range shifts alter ecological assemblages, yet little is known of the consequences for ecosystem functioning. We combine species distribution model (SDM) projections with species traits to develop a spatially explicit risk index for assessing climate change impacts on ecosystem functioning. The “Climate Ecological Disruption Index” (CEDI) is an easy-to-interpret metric that builds on existing approaches to quantifying functional diversity, providing a novel foundation for evaluating functional consequences of climate-induced species range shifts and identifying areas at risk. We applied CEDI to a marine protected area network on Canada's east coast, where it indicated high potential for ecological disruption, with a maximum value of 0.35 (more than one-third turnover in functional groups). Our approach is generalizable, aiding spatial conservation planning by translating projected species range shifts from SDMs into potential ecological disruption, thereby supporting the integration of climate resilience into management strategies and informing conservation planning efforts in a warming world.