Emergent archetype patterns of coupled land use/land cover and hydrogeologic responses on a regional scale

Abstract

This study integrates remote sensing, statistical methods, and system dynamics archetypes to analyze the spatiotemporal interplay between land use/land cover (LULC) changes, groundwater levels (GWL), and actual evapotranspiration (ETA) in Iran’s semi-arid Hashtgerd subbasin (2000–2019). While existing studies predominantly employ model-driven approaches (e.g., SWAT and MODFLOW) to assess LULC impacts on groundwater, this work has pioneered the use of system dynamics archetypes—a novel framework—to diagnose self-reinforcing feedback mechanisms (e.g., ’limits to growth’) that perpetuate depletion, offering a scalable paradigm for semi-arid regions. Multi-sensor satellite data (Landsat, Sentinel-2, WorldView-3), digital elevation models, and groundwater observations were used to map annual LULC dynamics and quantify ETA via a SEBAL model. The findings reveal accelerated groundwater depletion, projecting a 32-meter decline by 2050, driven primarily by urbanization and agricultural intensification. A 4 % reduction in bare land and irrigated cropland—converted predominantly to residential and garden areas—correlated with increased ETA (residential: Z_mk = 6.54; gardens: Z_smk = 2.68) and diminished aquifer recharge. Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests revealed a critical hydrological shift after 2010, marked by intensified GWL depletions (−0.12 m/month). The archetypal analysis highlighted systemic feedback mechanisms, notably the “limits to growth” pattern, wherein unchecked LULC transitions exacerbate groundwater scarcity through self-reinforcing cycles of demand and depletion. Lagged Pearson correlations further linked residential expansion to GWL reductions (r =  − 0.40 at 5-month lag). The results underscore anthropogenic drivers as dominant contributors to groundwater stress, advocating policy measures that align urban growth with aquifer sustainability. By bridging geospatial analytics with system dynamics, this study offers a scalable framework for addressing water-security challenges in semi-arid regions under socio-environmental pressures.