A comparative analysis of Africa's regional demographic and epidemiological transitions: Policy implications for public health

Abstract

Objectives

Demographic and epidemiological changes have redefined public health priorities globally. Africa is undergoing an unprecedented demographic and epidemiological transformation with implications for public health. This study aims to provide a comparative analysis of these transitions across different African regions.

Study design

This is an observational descriptive study based on study utilizes secondary data from the World Bank and the Global Burden of Disease database to analyze demographic and epidemiological trends in Africa from 2000 to 2019.

Methods

This study utilizes secondary data from the World Bank and the Global Burden of Disease database to analyze demographic and epidemiological trends in Africa from 2000 to 2019. The analysis is conducted on a regional basis, categorizing Africa into Northern, Western, Central, Eastern, and Southern regions. Birth rates, death rates, and life expectancy were extracted from the World Bank's open database for the years 1960–2020, and disease burden, categorized as communicable diseases (CDs), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and injuries, were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study for the years 1990–2019 using both mortality data and disability adjusted life years (DALY).

Results

Demographic and epidemiological transitions varied significantly. Northern Africa saw birth rates decline (50 per 1000 in 1960 to 20 in 2020), while population growth was most pronounced in Eastern Africa (70–330 million). The epidemiological transition showed a shift from CDs to NCDs across all regions. In Northern Africa, there was a decline in CDs, while NCDs increased (CD deaths: 279,529 in 1990 to 95,491 in 2019; CD DALYs: 25.9 million to 7.5 million; NCD deaths: 513,284 to 923,619; NCD DALYs: 25.2 million to 39.6 million). In contrast, the rest of Africa experienced slower progress in reducing CDs. In Southern Africa, after the peak of CD-related deaths in 2000, the burden of CDs declined, and today the disease burden is almost evenly split between CDs and NCDs (CD deaths: 754,169; NCD deaths: 543,419 in 2019).

Conclusion

These findings suggest the need for region-specific public health strategies across Africa. Northern and Southern Africa should prioritize NCD prevention and management, with early detection, care, and lifestyle interventions. Western and Central Africa require sustained infectious disease control, reinforcing vaccination, treatment access, and surveillance, while also addressing the rising burden of NCDs.