Projected tropical cyclone genesis and seasonality changes in the Northern Hemisphere under a warming climate

IF 8.4 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-07-31 DOI:10.1038/s41612-025-01170-1

Erandani Lakshani Widana Arachchige, Wen Zhou, Ralf Toumi, Xuan Wang

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Abstract

The impact of global warming on future tropical cyclone (TC) development is substantial; however, the predictability of TC genesis remains uncertain. In this study, we investigate projected changes in TC genesis on a regional scale over the North Atlantic (NA) and western North Pacific (WNP) ocean basins, focusing on TC seasonality through bias-corrected model simulations. Our study unveils a weakening of peak TC genesis (August-October; ASO) at lower latitudes under a high-emission scenario, along with a strengthening of TC peak (July-September; JAS) at higher latitudes. Most importantly, positive vertical velocity (ω) in the mid-troposphere (500 hPa) plays a dominant role in weakening the TC peak in the tropics, while weak vertical wind shear (VWS) in the subtropics facilitates TC development. Our study elucidates the impact of climate change on the regional environment and the ensuing possible changes in TC seasonality, offering essential insights into future projected TC genesis in the Northern Hemisphere.

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气候变暖下北半球热带气旋的形成和季节性变化的预估

全球变暖对未来热带气旋发展的影响是巨大的；然而，TC起源的可预测性仍然不确定。在这项研究中，我们研究了北大西洋（NA）和北太平洋西部（WNP）海洋盆地在区域尺度上的TC成因的预估变化，重点关注了通过偏差校正模式模拟的TC季节性。我们的研究表明，TC发生的峰值减弱（8 - 10月）；高排放情景下低纬度地区的ASO)，以及TC峰值的增强(7 - 9月；JAS)在高纬度地区。最重要的是，对流层中（500 hPa）正垂直速度（ω）对热带地区TC峰值的减弱起主导作用，而副热带地区弱垂直风切变（VWS）有利于TC的发展。我们的研究阐明了气候变化对区域环境的影响以及随之而来的TC季节性的可能变化，为北半球未来预测的TC成因提供了重要的见解。

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来源期刊

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

21 weeks

期刊介绍： npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.