Machine learning approaches for predicting the link of the global trade network of liquefied natural gas.

Abstract

With the rising geopolitical tensions, predicting future trade partners has become a critical topic for the global community. Liquefied natural gas (LNG), recognized as the cleanest burning hydrocarbon, plays a significant role in the transition to a cleaner energy future. As international trade in LNG becomes increasingly volatile, it is essential to assist governments in identifying potential trade partners and analyzing the trade network. Traditionally, forecasts of future mineral and energy resource trade networks have relied on similarity indicators (e.g., CN, AA). This study employs complex network theory to illustrate the characteristics of nodes and edges, as well as the evolution of global LNG trade networks from 2001 to 2020. Utilizing node and edge data from these networks, this research applies machine learning algorithms to predict future links based on local and global similarity-based indices (e.g., CN, JA, PA). The findings indicate that random forest and decision tree algorithms, when used with local similarity-based indices, demonstrate strong predictive performance. The reliability of these algorithms is validated through the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC). Additionally, a graph attention network model is developed to predict potential links using edge and motif data. The results indicate robust predictive performance. This study demonstrates that machine learning algorithms-specifically random forest and decision tree-outperform in predicting links within the global LNG trade network based on local information proximity, while the graph attention network, a deep learning model, exhibits stable optimization and effective feature learning. These findings suggest that machine learning approaches hold significant promise for mineral trade network analysis.