Global, regional, and national burden of liver cancer due to hepatitis B, 1990-2021 and projections to 2051: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Abstract

Purpose: Using the Global Burden of Disease 2021 data, this study reports the global, regional, and national disease burden of liver cancer due to hepatitis B (LCDHB) from 1990 to 2021, stratified by age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI), and projects future burden to 2051.

Methods: We examined incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of LCDHB. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized death rates (ASDR), and age-standardized DALYs rates were analyzed (1990-2021). Spearman correlation assessed age-standardized rates-SDI relationships. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model projected the burden to 2051.

Results: Compared to 1990, the number of LCDHB incidences, deaths, and DALYs increased by 46.9, 41.2, and 33.9% in 2021; however, from 1990 to 2021, the ASIR, ASDR, and age-standardized DALYs rate all exhibited a declining trend. In 2021, the highest ASIR occurred in East Asia, High-income Asia Pacific, and Western sub-Saharan Africa. At the national and regional levels, Mongolia, the Republic of Paraguay, and the Commonwealth of the Bahamas showed peak ASIR. ASIR was higher in males and increased with age, peaking at 85-89 age group for both males and females in 2021. A reverse U-shaped correlation existed between age-standardized DALYs and SDI during 1990-2021. BAPC projections indicate declining global ASIR, ASDR, and age-standardized DALYs rates (2021-2051).

Conclusion: Despite rising incidence, deaths, and DALYs, LCDHB treatment challenges persist, especially for males and elderly populations. Our findings on epidemiological trends and demographic variations provide crucial insights for policymakers addressing this global health burden.