Trends and Disparities in Mortality due to Diabetes Mellitus and Sepsis in the US Adults: 1999–2023

Abstract

Background

Diabetes mellitus (DM) increases susceptibility to infection and worsens outcomes in sepsis, a leading cause of preventable death. However, population-level trends in sepsis-related mortality among diabetic individuals in the United States (US) remain poorly characterised, especially in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study evaluates national patterns, temporal shifts, and demographic disparities in sepsis-related mortality in diabetic patients from 1999 to 2023.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective analysis using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) Multiple Cause of Death database. Sepsis-related deaths with co-listed DM were extracted for US adults between 1999 and 2023. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were calculated and Joinpoint regression was used to estimate annual percentage changes (APCs) and identify significant trends.

Results

A total of 483,207 sepsis-related deaths occurred in individuals with DM during the study period. AAMRs declined significantly from 1999 to 2018 (APC: −1.22; p < 0.001), reversed sharply from 2018 to 2021 (APC: +18.14; p = 0.01), and declined again through 2023 (APC: −12.25; p < 0.001). Mortality was highest among older adults (AAMR: 32.63), males (9.72 vs. 7.80 in females), and non-Hispanic Black and American Indian/Alaska Native populations (AAMRs: 17.94 and 17.92, respectively). Hispanic populations showed the steepest pandemic-era increase (APC: +22.49) and subsequent decline (APC: −20.43). Rural areas consistently had higher AAMRs than urban areas (8.77 vs. 8.27), with sharper increases during the pandemic. State-level disparities widened dramatically from 2021 to 2023, and regionally, the South and Midwest exhibited the highest and most persistent mortality burdens.

Conclusion

Sepsis-related mortality in diabetic individuals in the US has undergone dynamic shifts over the past 25 years, punctuated by COVID-19 era surges and shaped by deep-rooted demographic, geographic, and structural inequities. These findings warrant integrated diabetes-infection care models, early sepsis recognition, and equity-driven interventions to reduce mortality.