Evolution of tuberculosis in Spain: Will the objectives of the End TB Strategy be achieved in Western European countries?

IF 2.5 4区医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Enfermedades infecciosas y microbiologia clinica Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI:10.1016/j.eimc.2025.02.004

Teresa Rodrigo , Joan P. Millet , Mario Bravo , Eva M. Tabernero , Joan A. Caylà , Tuberculosis Prevention and Control Programmes of the Autonomous Communities Working Group

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objectives

End TB Strategy aims to reduce the incidence of tuberculosis between 2015 and 2025 milestone by 50%. We analyse whether the decreasing incidence objectives of this strategy can be achieved in Spain with the impact of COVID-19 pandemic and to review the incidence evolution in Western European countries (WEC).

Study design

Retrospective longitudinal ecological study with forecasting.

Methodology

An exponential curve was fitted to the Spanish and WEC data prior the pandemic period and projected with the model until 2025 using a 90% confidence interval to have better precision due to the sample size.

Results

The mean annual % change in incidence rates of TB in the three most affected WEC during 2018–2022 decreased by 6.5% in Spain, by 6.0% in Portugal, by 3.8% in Belgium and by 5.7% in France. The annual decrease in Spain in the first year of COVID-19 pandemic was 16.6%. Lower declines than in Spain were observed in most WEC. The probability of achieving the objective of reducing the incidence by 50% between 2015 and 2025 in Spain is, with a certainty of 90%, 0%, but with important differences by regions from 0% to 79%. These probabilities in Portugal, Belgium, France and Italy are also 0%.

Conclusion

With this epidemiological evolution, the main objective of the End TB Strategy for 2025 milestone (50% incidence decline) will not be achieved in Spain. The 80% decline will probably not be reached by 2030 unless surveillance and control are improved, and TB Programmes are provided with sufficient resources. The same situation could be happening in other WEC.

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西班牙结核病的演变：终止结核病战略的目标能否在西欧国家实现？

终结结核病战略的目标是在2015年至2025年期间将结核病发病率降低50%。我们分析在COVID-19大流行的影响下，西班牙是否可以实现该战略的降低发病率目标，并审查西欧国家（WEC）的发病率演变。研究设计：带预测的回顾性纵向生态学研究。方法：在大流行时期之前，将指数曲线拟合到西班牙和WEC的数据中，并使用模型预测到2025年，使用90%的置信区间，由于样本量的原因，具有更好的精度。结果2018-2022年，西班牙、葡萄牙、比利时和法国三个受影响最严重的WEC的结核病发病率年均变化率分别下降6.5%、6.0%、3.8%和5.7%。在2019冠状病毒病大流行的第一年，西班牙的年降幅为16.6%。大多数WEC的下降幅度低于西班牙。西班牙在2015年至2025年之间实现将发病率降低50%的目标的概率为90%，但各地区之间的差异很大，从0%到79%不等。葡萄牙、比利时、法国和意大利的这种可能性也为0%。随着流行病学的发展，西班牙将无法实现2025年终止结核病战略里程碑的主要目标（发病率下降50%）。除非监测和控制得到改善，并向结核病规划提供足够的资源，否则到2030年很可能无法实现下降80%的目标。同样的情况也可能发生在其他WEC国家。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Enfermedades infecciosas y microbiologia clinica 医学-传染病学

CiteScore

2.10

自引率

8.00%

发文量

194

审稿时长

29 days

期刊介绍： Hoy está universalmente reconocida la renovada y creciente importancia de la patología infecciosa: aparición de nuevos agentes patógenos, de cepas resistentes, de procesos con expresión clínica hasta ahora desconocida, de cuadros de una gran complejidad. Paralelamente, la Microbiología y la Infectología Clínicas han experimentado un gran desarrollo como respuesta al reto planteado por la actual patología infecciosa. Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica es la Publicación Oficial de la Sociedad Española SEIMC. Cumple con la garantía científica de esta Sociedad, la doble función de difundir trabajos de investigación, tanto clínicos como microbiológicos, referidos a la patología infecciosa, y contribuye a la formación continuada de los interesados en aquella patología mediante artículos orientados a ese fin y elaborados por autores de la mayor calificación invitados por la revista.