Development of a non-deterministic fractional low-carbon transition programming method associated with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) assessment--application to Shanxi Province, China

IF 10 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL

Journal of Cleaner Production Pub Date : 2025-07-30 DOI:10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.146216

Y.L. Zheng, G.H. Huang, Y.P. Li, D.C. Han, B. Luo, R.J. Hao, W.C. Tang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Low-carbon transition could exert far-reaching effects on achievement of regional Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Herein, a non-deterministic fractional low-carbon transition programming method (FLCT) associated with an optimization-driven SDGs assessment approach (OSDG) was developed, and applied to Shanxi Province, China. We found that regions heavily dependent on fossil energy could achieve its SDGs progress when promoting low-carbon transition, and identified the suitable transition pathway. Our results demonstrated whether SDGs performance could be advanced will be determined by substitute of renewable-dominated power structure for fossil-dominated one. In Shanxi Province, renewable power is expected to account for 60 % of total power generation as the largest energy source during 2026–2040. Specifically, wind power would contribute approximately 50 %. Our research is expected to help provide improved insights into low-carbon transition pathways in Energy-Water-Carbon (EWC) nexus system and contribute to bridging the gaps between low-carbon transition and UN's SDGs.

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与可持续发展目标（SDGs）评估相关的非确定性分数型低碳转型规划方法的开发——在中国山西省的应用

低碳转型将对区域可持续发展目标的实现产生深远影响。在此基础上，提出了一种与优化驱动的可持续发展目标评估方法（OSDG）相结合的非确定性分数型低碳转型规划方法（FLCT），并将其应用于山西省。我们发现化石能源严重依赖地区在推动低碳转型的同时可以实现其可持续发展目标的进展，并确定了合适的转型路径。研究结果表明，以可再生能源为主的电力结构取代化石能源为主的电力结构，将决定可持续发展目标能否实现。在山西省，可再生能源预计将在2026-2040年期间占总发电量的60%，成为最大的能源来源。具体来说，风力发电将贡献约50%。我们的研究有望帮助人们更好地了解能源-水-碳（EWC）关系系统中的低碳转型途径，并有助于弥合低碳转型与联合国可持续发展目标之间的差距。

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来源期刊

Journal of Cleaner Production 环境科学-工程：环境

CiteScore

20.40

自引率

9.00%

发文量

4720

审稿时长

111 days

期刊介绍： The Journal of Cleaner Production is an international, transdisciplinary journal that addresses and discusses theoretical and practical Cleaner Production, Environmental, and Sustainability issues. It aims to help societies become more sustainable by focusing on the concept of 'Cleaner Production', which aims at preventing waste production and increasing efficiencies in energy, water, resources, and human capital use. The journal serves as a platform for corporations, governments, education institutions, regions, and societies to engage in discussions and research related to Cleaner Production, environmental, and sustainability practices.