A statistical representation of oil spill fate in the Salish Sea (Part 2)

IF 4.9 3区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Marine pollution bulletin Pub Date : 2025-07-30 DOI:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2025.118410

Rachael D. Mueller , Susan E. Allen , Stephanie Chang , Haibo Niu , Douglas J. Latornell , Shihan Li , Ryah Bagshaw , Ashutosh Bhudia , Vicky Do , Krista Forysinski , Ben Moore-Maley , Cameron Power

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Abstract

We use a novel approach that combines Automatic Identification System (AIS) ship traffic data, state regulated oil transfer data, and a suite of numerical models to statistically represent the risk of spilled Alaska North Slope Crude, Bunker-C, and Marine Diesel under a variety of environmental conditions in an estuarine environment off the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We show the statistics of fate and transport outcomes based on 10,000 MOHID oil spill model simulations with currents, winds, and waves between January 1, 2015 and December 31, 2018. Each of the 10,000 oil spill scenarios was run individually and includes weathering from biodegradation, dissolution, dispersion, emulsification, evaporation, and spreading. Our pioneering approach captures statistical variability in seasonality, vessel traffic, spill locations, and oil types. We show that heterogeneity of 3D circulation in an estuarine environment, combined with marine traffic “footprints”, creates regionally-variable signatures of the timing, likelihood and type of potential oiling.

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萨利希海溢油事故的统计分析（第二部分）

我们采用了一种新颖的方法，将自动识别系统（AIS）船舶交通数据、国家监管的石油运输数据和一套数值模型结合起来，统计了阿拉斯加北坡原油、Bunker-C和船用柴油在太平洋东北部河口环境中各种环境条件下的泄漏风险。我们展示了2015年1月1日至2018年12月31日期间，基于10000个MOHID溢油模型模拟的海流、风和海浪的命运和运输结果的统计数据。1万种溢油情景中的每一种都是单独运行的，包括生物降解、溶解、分散、乳化、蒸发和扩散。我们开创性的方法捕捉了季节性、船舶交通、泄漏地点和油类的统计变异性。研究表明，在河口环境中，三维环流的异质性与海上交通的“足迹”相结合，形成了潜在油污发生的时间、可能性和类型的区域变量特征。

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来源期刊

Marine pollution bulletin 环境科学-海洋与淡水生物学

CiteScore

10.20

自引率

15.50%

发文量

1077

审稿时长

68 days

期刊介绍： Marine Pollution Bulletin is concerned with the rational use of maritime and marine resources in estuaries, the seas and oceans, as well as with documenting marine pollution and introducing new forms of measurement and analysis. A wide range of topics are discussed as news, comment, reviews and research reports, not only on effluent disposal and pollution control, but also on the management, economic aspects and protection of the marine environment in general.