The impact of the ultra-low emission zone on high streets economy and social equality in Outer London

Abstract

Many cities are adopting transport policies that regulate vehicle emissions, informed by policy impact assessments primarily focused on traffic, air pollution, and public health. However, few studies have explored the broader economic effects of such restrictions, particularly their impact on travel behaviour and local commerce. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for balancing economic development with sustainable urban planning. This study introduces a novel Spatially Robust Interrupted Time Series (SRITS) model to assess the causal impact of the ULEZ expansion on visitation to local high streets in Outer London. Specifically, we quantify the policy’s effects on social equity by incorporating local socio-economic factors. Our findings reveal that the ULEZ expansion led to increased footfall on local high streets, particularly in deprived areas, where the policy may have heightened reliance on nearby commercial hubs. Additionally, we found that the composition and scale of high streets may have significantly influenced their resilience and economic vitality. These insights contribute to a deeper understanding of how sustainable transport policies intersect with urban economic development.