Vaccination dilemmas in mitigating monkeypox outbreaks: An imitation dynamics game model approach

Abstract

The monkeypox epidemic poses a serious global health threat, making effective control strategies essential. Using a mechanistic SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model, this study incorporates both pro- and anti-vaccination attitudes among susceptibles to examine their impact on transmission. Sensitivity analysis via partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCC) identifies key parameters affecting the basic reproduction number ($R_0$). The model reveals both forward and backward bifurcations, indicating potential for stable infection states and persistent epidemics. To address vaccination behavior, a coupled vaccination game based on imitation dynamics is introduced. Results show that higher imitation rates increase pro-vaccine adoption and reduce infections. The study highlights the role of social dilemmas, where low pro-vaccine uptake and frequent strategy switching worsen outbreaks. High vaccination costs further reduce social payoff, but strong social learning still promotes uptake, even with low susceptibility or high costs. Overall, social learning strategies can enhance vaccination rates and curb monkeypox spread.