Spatiotemporal evaluation of marine economy vulnerability in China: A multi-method approach

Abstract

The spatiotemporal evaluation of marine economy vulnerability (MEV) is crucial for optimizing the spatial layout of the marine economy and promoting its sustainable development. This study applies catastrophe progression method and wooden barrel theory to evaluate the MEV of provinces and marine economic circles (MECs) in China, respectively. By using the Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition and Kernel density estimation methods, it analyzes the sources of differences and the spatiotemporal characteristics of MEV. It applies obstacle degree model to obtain the influencing factors of MEV. The key findings are as follows: The social and resource subsystems were mainly of high or very high vulnerability, and the economic and environmental subsystems were mainly of medium or low, low or very low vulnerability, respectively. The MEV of three MECs was all medium, and showed a decreasing trend. The MEV of most provinces continued to improve, but it manifested as spatial disequilibrium. The difference among MECs increased, and hypervariable density was its main source. The distribution of the northern and southern MECs diverged, while that of the eastern MEC concentrated. To reduce the MEV of China, the three MECs should strengthen inter-regional cooperation and promote coordinated internal development, while each province should implement tailored policies based on its actual situation. This study can also provide a reference for the evaluation of MEC and the balanced development in other countries and regions.