Global Assessment of current and future chikungunya virus transmission risk using optimized maxent modeling

Abstract

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) primarily spreads through an urban transmission cycle involving humans and two principal mosquito vectors, Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, especially in densely populated areas, posing significant public health challenges as climate change alters vector habitats. This study applied an optimized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model incorporating CHIKV and primary vector occurrence data (2005–2020) and filtered environmental predictors within a hierarchical framework to project CHIKV transmission risk under current and 96 future scenarios. Under current climate conditions, areas at risk of CHIKV transmission encompassed 15.41 % of the global land surface, predominantly clustered within tropical and subtropical regions. Approximately 6.78 billion people were estimated to reside within these vulnerable zones. And our findings confirmed Ae. aegypti as a dominant factor shaping CHIKV transmission dynamics compared to Ae. albopictus. Future projections showed a general decreasing trend in the global CHIKV risk distribution, with a notable exception in Europe. Specifically in China, current high-risk areas were limited to southern provinces and southeastern coastal regions. Going forward, its high-risk areas would contract while exhibiting a notable northward shift. This study highlights the critical need for adaptive vector control programs targeting both established and emerging CHIKV transmission zones. We advocate for the systematic incorporation of climate change scenarios into long-term CHIKV prevention strategies, particularly in regions projected to become increasingly suitable for virus transmission.