Demand Response Potential Estimation Model for Typical Industrial Users Considering Uncertain and Subjective Factors

Abstract

Demand response (DR) is a practical solution to overcoming the challenges posed by the volatility and intermittency of the renewable generation in power systems. Industrial electricity demand is growing rapidly, which makes the DR potential estimation of industrial user critical for the DR implementation. In this paper, a unified model for estimating DR potential in the production processes of aluminum, cement, and steel is proposed on the basis of their unique operational characteristics. Firstly, considering the typical characteristic constraints of different industrial users, a DR potential estimation model is developed to capture typical industrial user response behavior under various operational and economic factors. The proposed estimation model is further refined to account for the uncertain and subjective factors present in the actual estimation environment. Secondly, a virtual data acquisition method is introduced to obtain the private virtual parameters required in the estimation process. Then, an industrial user participation threshold is presented to determine whether industrial users may participate in DR at a given time with consideration of their response characteristics. The industrial users may not always act with perfect rationality, and the response environment remains uncertain. In addition, the subjective factor in this paper includes the proposed threshold and the bounded rationality. Finally, an improved DR potential estimation model is proposed to reduce the difficulties in the actual estimation process. The simulation results validate the effectiveness of the proposed estimation model and the improved DR potential estimation model across multiple cases.