Inflation shocks and the New Keynesian model: When should central banks fear inflation expectations?

IF 3.9 3区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

North American Journal of Economics and Finance Pub Date : 2025-07-23 DOI:10.1016/j.najef.2025.102508

Lucio Gobbi , Ronny Mazzocchi , Roberto Tamborini

引用次数: 0

Abstract

When inflation picks up, central banks fear that de-anchored expectations trigger ever increasing inflation, but this scenario does not materialize in the standard New Keynesian (NK) blueprint for central banks. Divergent inflation processes may result introducing boundedly rational beliefs about future inflation that de-anchor endogenously, together with indexed wages and persistent shocks. However, by means of simulations of the model, we find that the relevant parameters should be far beyond their consensus empirical values. Either the concern with the de-anchoring of inflation expectations is overrated or it should be given different theoretical underpinnings than the NK ones.

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通胀冲击与新凯恩斯主义模型：央行何时应该担心通胀预期？

当通胀上升时，央行担心去锚定的预期会引发不断上升的通胀，但这种情况并没有在标准的新凯恩斯主义（NK）央行蓝图中实现。不同的通胀过程可能导致引入对未来通胀的有限理性信念，这些信念会与指数化的工资和持续的冲击一起，内在地去锚定。然而，通过对模型的模拟，我们发现相关参数应该远远超出了它们的共识经验值。要么对通胀预期去锚化的担忧被高估了，要么应该给予与朝鲜不同的理论基础。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

North American Journal of Economics and Finance Multiple-

CiteScore

7.30

自引率

8.30%

发文量

168

期刊介绍： The focus of the North-American Journal of Economics and Finance is on the economics of integration of goods, services, financial markets, at both regional and global levels with the role of economic policy in that process playing an important role. Both theoretical and empirical papers are welcome. Empirical and policy-related papers that rely on data and the experiences of countries outside North America are also welcome. Papers should offer concrete lessons about the ongoing process of globalization, or policy implications about how governments, domestic or international institutions, can improve the coordination of their activities. Empirical analysis should be capable of replication. Authors of accepted papers will be encouraged to supply data and computer programs.