Spatial analysis of land use and land cover change and irregular settlements along BR-104, in Northeast Brazil

Abstract

The study's objective is to conduct a spatial analysis of the relationship between changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in areas susceptible to irregular settlements along the right-of-way of the federal highway, BR-104 PE, located in the Northeast region of Brazil. By integrating MapBiomas data and the Social Vulnerability Index by IPEA from 2000 to 2010 and 2010–2018, the analysis predicts changes in high-risk zones for irregular occupations. The study examines spatial landscape modifications across different LULC classes using a tool to identify how land categories shift over time within QGIS’s Molusce module. Despite the topic’s urgency, academic assessments of such processes remain limited, reinforcing the need for further methodological innovation. Findings indicate that densely populated areas associated with housing deficits are more likely to experience an increase in informal settlements. Specifically, transforming urban and rural areas into irregular occupations along BR-104 right-of-way correlates with intensified human activity, elevated Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) scores, and the associated socioeconomic factors. Over ten years (2000–2010), the region lost about 35.64 km² of agricultural land while experiencing nearly 16.60 km² of irregular urban expansion. These shifts underscore the urgency of integrated land-use planning and targeted social policies to prevent the expansion of informal settlements in this context.