Assessing blue growth in coastal China: Spatio-temporal disparities and guidance for sustainable marine governance

IF 5.4 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY

Ocean & Coastal Management Pub Date : 2025-07-25 DOI:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2025.107880

Yongsheng Wang , Zhijian Yu

{"title":"Assessing blue growth in coastal China: Spatio-temporal disparities and guidance for sustainable marine governance","authors":"Yongsheng Wang , Zhijian Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2025.107880","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Driven by global sustainability agendas, Blue Growth (BG) has emerged as a key paradigm for harmonizing economic development with social and ecological goals. This study assesses BG progress from 2012 to 2022 across 54 coastal cities in China's three major marine economic zones (MEZs) using a multidimensional framework that integrates economic development, social inclusion, and ecological sustainability. Through advanced tools including the Dagum Gini coefficient, Markov chain models, and Random Forest regression, we analyze BG's spatio-temporal dynamics. We find that: (1) While BG has advanced overall, regional disparities are widening, with ‘BG poles’ concentrated in major deltas. (2) BG development shows strong path dependence and spatial spillover effects, leading to ‘club convergence’ that reinforces regional imbalances. (3) Economic growth remains the main driver, while the diminishing role of social inclusion threatens equity and long-term sustainability. These findings highlight the need for a strategic shift in China's coastal governance towards more balanced, inclusive, and spatially coordinated policies to fully realize its sustainable BG potential.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54698,"journal":{"name":"Ocean & Coastal Management","volume":"270 ","pages":"Article 107880"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ocean & Coastal Management","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0964569125003424","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"OCEANOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Driven by global sustainability agendas, Blue Growth (BG) has emerged as a key paradigm for harmonizing economic development with social and ecological goals. This study assesses BG progress from 2012 to 2022 across 54 coastal cities in China's three major marine economic zones (MEZs) using a multidimensional framework that integrates economic development, social inclusion, and ecological sustainability. Through advanced tools including the Dagum Gini coefficient, Markov chain models, and Random Forest regression, we analyze BG's spatio-temporal dynamics. We find that: (1) While BG has advanced overall, regional disparities are widening, with ‘BG poles’ concentrated in major deltas. (2) BG development shows strong path dependence and spatial spillover effects, leading to ‘club convergence’ that reinforces regional imbalances. (3) Economic growth remains the main driver, while the diminishing role of social inclusion threatens equity and long-term sustainability. These findings highlight the need for a strategic shift in China's coastal governance towards more balanced, inclusive, and spatially coordinated policies to fully realize its sustainable BG potential.

Abstract Image

查看原文本刊更多论文

中国沿海蓝色增长评估：时空差异与海洋可持续治理指导

在全球可持续发展议程的推动下，蓝色增长（BG）已成为协调经济发展与社会和生态目标的关键范例。本研究采用综合经济发展、社会包容和生态可持续性的多维框架，对中国三大海洋经济区54个沿海城市2012年至2022年的BG进展进行了评估。通过Dagum基尼系数、马尔可夫链模型和随机森林回归等先进工具，分析了BG的时空动态。研究发现：(1)虽然天然气储量总体上有所提高，但区域差异正在扩大，“天然气极”集中在主要三角洲；②BG发展表现出强烈的路径依赖和空间溢出效应，导致“俱乐部趋同”，加剧了区域失衡。(3)经济增长仍然是主要驱动力，而社会包容作用的减弱威胁到公平和长期可持续性。这些发现强调了中国沿海治理需要向更加平衡、包容和空间协调的政策转变，以充分发挥其可持续的BG潜力。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Ocean & Coastal Management 环境科学-海洋学

CiteScore

8.50

自引率

15.20%

发文量

321

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Ocean & Coastal Management is the leading international journal dedicated to the study of all aspects of ocean and coastal management from the global to local levels. We publish rigorously peer-reviewed manuscripts from all disciplines, and inter-/trans-disciplinary and co-designed research, but all submissions must make clear the relevance to management and/or governance issues relevant to the sustainable development and conservation of oceans and coasts. Comparative studies (from sub-national to trans-national cases, and other management / policy arenas) are encouraged, as are studies that critically assess current management practices and governance approaches. Submissions involving robust analysis, development of theory, and improvement of management practice are especially welcome.