Threat Perceptions and Closeness to Refugees: A Three-Wave Longitudinal Study.

Abstract

This study examines the longitudinal interplay between individuals' perceptions of two types of intergroup threats-realistic and symbolic-and their feelings of closeness toward Ukrainian war refugees, using a three-wave design and a random intercept cross-lagged panel model. By disentangling within-person dynamics from between-person effects, the findings reveal that stronger-than-usual feelings of closeness predicted reduced perceptions of both realistic and symbolic threats over time. Conversely, heightened perceptions of realistic threat significantly undermine feelings of closeness, whereas symbolic threat demonstrates no substantial influence on subsequent closeness. These results underscore the centrality of realistic threats, reflecting concerns such as economic competition and resource allocation strains, in shaping intergroup attitudes in the studied context. By distinguishing between within- and between-person variances, and adopting a longitudinal framework, this study provides novel insights into the mechanisms underlying intergroup relations, offering a robust empirical contribution to the field.