Burden trend and forecasting analysis of malignant skin melanoma from 1990 to 2021.

Abstract

Malignant skin melanoma (MSM) is a highly malignant skin tumor that poses a significant threat to public health worldwide owing to its high mortality and susceptibility to metastasis. We aimed to conduct a comprehensive, multifaceted, and methodical analysis of the burden trends regarding MSM patients across all ages. We acquired the prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) data of all ages and age-standardized patients from 1990 to 2021 worldwide, spanning 204 nations, 21 regions, and 5 SDI areas, using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. Additionally, we employed joinpoint regression analysis to get the average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) for the aforementioned metrics. Lastly, by combining data from several levels, we examined trends in MSM burden. In addition, we first predict the general trend of MSM over the next 15 years using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Based on the above studies, since the 1990s, the worldwide health burden of MSM has been steadily increasing. Across levels and populations, the burden of MSM varies significantly. More effective and targeted interventions need to be developed as a means of managing the MSM burden, thereby alleviating global public health pressures.