A holistic approach for assesssing multidimensional adaptive capacity to floods: From conceptualization to empirical assessment

Abstract

Adaptive capacity is crucial for implementing adaptation and risk reduction strategies. This study conceptualizes adaptive capacity as a multidimensional construct, i.e., physical, social, economic, psychological, technological, and institutional dimensions. Indexes are computed using the composite index method, and their values are calculated based on descriptive statistics to facilitate data normalization. Significant differences were evaluated using one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) tests, and the impacts were assessed through multiple regression analysis. Three flood-prone urban communities of Islamabad, Pakistan, namely Chak Shahzad, Sector E−11/D-12, and River/Soan Garden, were selected. Data was collected from a random sample of 600 households, with 200 households each from the selected communities. A structured questionnaire containing 48 indicators across the dimensions was used. Communities were found to have a moderate adaptive capacity (mean = 0.52), with higher capacity in the physical (mean = 0.64) and technological (mean = 0.58) dimensions, while lower capacity levels were observed in the economic (mean = 0.41) and institutional (mean = 0.49) dimensions. The presence of elderly household members and the extent of flood damage was positively associated with adaptive capacity, whereas past flood experiences had a negative impact. Non-conformity to land-use and zoning laws, the absence of social protection programs and insurance, and ineffective warning were the main factors reducing adaptive capacity. This highlights the need to formulate effective adaptation strategies and policies to improve the adaptive capacity of the communities. The approach can also be applied to other settings and hazards to understand the adaptive capacity at different spatial scales.