Identifying waste leakage: Behavioral responses to China’s municipal solid waste classification plan

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2025-07-22 DOI:10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102508

Lue Zhan , Di Xiang , Chad Lawley

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This article examines the intended and unintended consequences of China's mandatory Municipal Solid Waste Classification Plan (MSWCP). We find that the policy achieved its primary goal, reducing waste generation by 14.5 %. However, using e-commerce retail sales data across Chinese municipalities, we also identify significant “waste leakage”: an average of 25.0 % increase in plastic trash bag sales and an 21.4 % increase in food waste shredder sales. Dynamic estimates show a rapid increase in trash bag use, contrasting with a slower uptake of shredders. Heterogeneous effects analysis indicates greater responsiveness to the MSWCP in municipalities emphasizing monitoring over awareness campaigns. Despite a positive net benefit from the MSWCP, we find a substantial waste leakage cost, equivalent to 17 % of the net benefit, driven by increased consumption of trash bags and shredders.

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识别废物泄漏：对中国城市固体废物分类计划的行为反应

本文探讨了中国强制性城市固体废物分类计划（MSWCP）的预期和意外后果。我们发现，该政策实现了其主要目标，减少了14.5%的废物产生。然而，利用中国各城市的电子商务零售数据，我们也发现了明显的“垃圾泄漏”：塑料垃圾袋的销售额平均增长了25.0%，食品垃圾碎纸机的销售额平均增长了21.4%。动态估计显示，垃圾袋的使用迅速增加，与碎纸机的使用速度较慢形成对比。异质效应分析表明，在强调监测而不是宣传运动的城市，对城市社会卫生计划的响应程度更高。尽管城市生活垃圾计划带来了积极的净效益，但由于垃圾袋和碎纸机的消耗增加，我们发现了大量的废物泄漏成本，相当于净效益的17%。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

中国经济评论 ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

10.60

自引率

4.40%

发文量

380

期刊介绍： The China Economic Review publishes original works of scholarship which add to the knowledge of the economy of China and to economies as a discipline. We seek, in particular, papers dealing with policy, performance and institutional change. Empirical papers normally use a formal model, a data set, and standard statistical techniques. Submissions are subjected to double-blind peer review.