Accidental adversaries in renewable energy projects: A system dynamics perspective on conflicts and procedural justice with local communities

Abstract

Conflicts between renewable energy projects and local communities are increasingly common, yet existing research often fails to capture the dynamic and relational nature of these disputes. This study addresses this gap by developing and empirically validating a system dynamics model grounded in the “Accidental Adversaries” archetype to examine how procedural justice and cooperation evolve over time in renewable energy projects. Applying the model to the Windpeshi wind farm in La Guajira, Colombia (an area characterized by structural inequalities and indigenous resistance) this research reveals five key dynamics: (1) early aggressive project acceleration generates harm to community relations and undermines project success; (2) as projects progress, community acceptance becomes the critical driver of infrastructure completion; (3) demands for participation emerge proactively, even before formal engagement begins; (4) increasing the number of consultations does not guarantee higher community satisfaction, underscoring the importance of procedural quality over quantity; and (5) harm inflicted on communities by project decisions exceeds the harm communities cause to projects, revealing asymmetrical impacts. These findings challenge static models of public acceptance and offer actionable insights for policymakers and developers aiming to prevent or mitigate conflicts by prioritizing early, meaningful, and adaptive engagement practices. The study advances the field of energy justice by demonstrating that conflicts are not solely predetermined by historical inequalities but are dynamically shaped through evolving interactions between developers and communities.