Anthropometric Measurements for Predicting Low Appendicular Lean Mass Index for the Diagnosis of Sarcopenia: A Machine Learning Model.

Abstract

Background: Sarcopenia is a progressive muscle disease that compromises mobility and quality of life in older adults. Although dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is the standard for assessing Appendicular Lean Mass Index (ALMI), it is costly and often inaccessible. This study aims to develop machine learning models using anthropometric measurements to predict low ALMI for the diagnosis of sarcopenia. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 183 Mexican adults (67.2% women and 32.8% men, ≥60 years old). ALMI was measured using DXA, and anthropometric data were collected following the International Society for the Advancement of Kinanthropometry (ISAK) protocols. Predictive models were developed using Logistic Regression (LR), Decision Trees (DTs), Random Forests (RFs), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), and LASSO regression. The dataset was split into training (70%) and testing (30%) sets. Model performance was evaluated using classification performance metrics and the area under the ROC curve (AUC). Results: ALMI indicated strong correlations with BMI, corrected calf girth, and arm relaxed girth. Among models, DT achieved the best performance in females (AUC = 0.84), and ANN indicated the highest AUC in males (0.92). Regarding the prediction of low ALMI, specificity values were highest in DT for females (100%), while RF performed best in males (92%). The key predictive variables varied depending on sex, with BMI and calf girth being the most relevant for females and arm girth for males. Conclusions: Anthropometry combined with machine learning provides an accurate, low-cost approach for identifying low ALMI in older adults. This method could facilitate sarcopenia screening in clinical settings with limited access to advanced diagnostic tools.