Analysis of Influencing Factors of Death in the Elderly With Coronavirus Disease 2019 Based on Propensity Score Matching.

Q4 Medicine

中国医学科学院学报 Pub Date : 2025-06-30 DOI:10.3881/j.issn.1000-503X.16256

Ying Chen, Hai-Ping Huang, Xin Li, Si-Jie Chai, Jia-Li Ye, Ding-Zi Zhou, Tao Zhang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objective To analyze the influencing factors of death in the elderly with coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19).Methods The case data of death caused by COVID-19 in West China Fourth Hospital from January 1 to July 8,2023 were collected,and surviving cases from the West China Elderly Health Cohort infected with COVID-19 during the same period were selected as the control.LASSO-Logistic regression was adopted to analyze the data after propensity score matching and the validity of the model was verified by drawing the receiver operating characteristic curve.Results A total of 3 239 COVID-19 survivors and 142 deaths with COVID-19 were included.The results of LASSO-Logistic regression showed that smoking(OR=3.33,95%CI=1.46-7.59,P=0.004),stroke(OR=3.55,95%CI=1.15-10.30,P=0.022),malignant tumors(OR=19.93, 95%CI=8.52-49.23, P<0.001),coronary heart disease(OR=7.68, 95%CI=3.52-17.07, P<0.001),fever(OR=0.51, 95%CI=0.26-0.96, P=0.042),difficulty breathing or asthma symptoms(OR=21.48, 95%CI=9.44-51.95, P<0.001),and vomiting(OR=8.19,95%CI=2.87-23.58, P<0.001)increased the risk of death with COVID-19.The prediction model constructed based on the influencing factors achieved an area under the curve of 0.889 in the test set.Conclusions Smoking,stroke,malignant tumors,coronary heart disease,fever,breathing difficulty or asthma symptoms,and vomiting were identified as key factors influencing the death risk in COVID-19.

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基于倾向评分匹配的2019冠状病毒病老年人死亡影响因素分析

目的分析老年冠状病毒病2019（COVID-19）死亡的影响因素。方法收集2023年1月1日至7月8日华西第四医院新冠肺炎死亡病例资料，并以同期华西老年健康队列感染新冠肺炎的存活病例为对照。倾向评分匹配后采用LASSO-Logistic回归对数据进行分析，并通过绘制受试者工作特征曲线验证模型的有效性。结果共纳入新冠肺炎存活病例3 239例，死亡病例142例。LASSO-Logistic回归分析结果显示，吸烟（OR=3.33,95%CI=1.46 ~ 7.59，P=0.004）、中风（OR=3.55,95%CI=1.15 ~ 10.30，P=0.022）、恶性肿瘤（OR=19.93, 95%CI=8.52 ~ 49.23， POR=7.68, 95%CI=3.52 ~ 17.07， POR=0.51, 95%CI=0.26 ~ 0.96， P=0.042）、呼吸困难或哮喘症状（OR=21.48, 95%CI=9.44 ~ 51.95， POR=8.19,95%CI=2.87 ~ 23.58， P=0.042）

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来源期刊

中国医学科学院学报 Medicine-Medicine (all)

CiteScore

0.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

6813

期刊介绍： Acta Academiae Medicinae Sinicae was founded in February 1979. It is a comprehensive medical academic journal published in China and abroad, supervised by the Ministry of Health of the People's Republic of China and sponsored by the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College. The journal mainly reports the latest research results, work progress and dynamics in the fields of basic medicine, clinical medicine, pharmacy, preventive medicine, biomedicine, medical teaching and research, aiming to promote the exchange of medical information and improve the academic level of medicine. At present, the journal has been included in 10 famous foreign retrieval systems and their databases [Medline (PubMed online version), Elsevier, EMBASE, CA, WPRIM, ExtraMED, IC, JST, UPD and EBSCO-ASP]; and has been included in important domestic retrieval systems and databases [China Science Citation Database (Documentation and Information Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences), China Core Journals Overview (Peking University Library), China Science and Technology Paper Statistical Source Database (China Science and Technology Core Journals) (China Institute of Scientific and Technological Information), China Science and Technology Journal Paper and Citation Database (China Institute of Scientific and Technological Information)].