An economic and environmental analysis of retrofitted fuel cell electric heavy-duty trucks

Abstract

The decarbonization of the freight transportation sector is posing significant challenges. Technical, economic, and environmental assessments have been conducted to determine the impact that alternative powertrains are having on the heavy-duty vehicle sector. However, the literature lacks information on how retrofitting might affect the outcomes. This article analyzes the effect of retrofitting on economic and environmental dimensions, both individually and in combination. We determine the most advantageous time frame for economically and environmentally effective retrofitting while considering potential trade-offs. Our methodology incorporates Total Cost of Ownership, Life Cycle Assessment, and Total Cost of Carbon Abatement. In addition to retrofitting costs, we also account for purchase costs, fuel costs, hydrogen prices, residual values, and other relevant cost categories in our model. Our findings indicate that the optimal timing of retrofitting in terms of both economic and environmental factors largely depends on the method of hydrogen production that is utilized. For fuel cell electric trucks to remain competitive, it is necessary to maintain a hydrogen price below 5 $\frac{\text{€}}{kg{H}_2}$ when subsidies are in place. Our results show that, when no subsidies are in place, retrofitted fuel cell electric trucks are not competitive at all. Policymakers should offer greater certainty to fleet operators, should promote increased investments in renewable hydrogen production to reduce the levelized cost of hydrogen, and should approach policy instruments more comprehensively.