Association between ambient temperature and injuries: A time series analysis using emergency ambulance dispatches in Shanghai

Abstract

Objective

Injuries remain a major cause of death globally amid rising health threats from climate change and extreme weather. This study examined the association between ambient temperatures and different injury mechanisms to identify vulnerable populations in Shanghai.

Methods

Injury-related emergency ambulance dispatch records and corresponding meteorological data for the period 2016–2021 were obtained from the Shanghai Emergency Dispatch Center and the Shanghai Meteorological Service. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) with a quasi-Poisson distribution was applied to evaluate the association between ambient temperatures and injury-related emergency ambulance dispatches. Subgroup analyses were further conducted by gender, age group, and injury mechanisms to identify vulnerable populations.

Results

Extreme temperatures were associated with increases in total injury-related emergency ambulance dispatches, as well as traffic accidents, falls, and assault injuries. Low temperatures were linked to an elevated risk of fall injuries, particularly among women aged 46 years and above. In contrast, extreme heat was associated with increased risks of traffic accidents and assault injuries among individuals aged 18–45, with assault injuries showing a particularly pronounced association among men.

Conclusions

Our findings can guide prehospital emergency service departments in developing targeted interventions to reduce injury incidence and mortality during extreme temperature events.