Changes in the Composition of Nitrogen Yields in Large Arctic Rivers Linked to Temperature and Precipitation

Abstract

Global trends in river nitrogen yields reflect human distortion of the global nitrogen cycle. Climate change and increasing agricultural intensity are projected to enhance river nitrogen yields in temperate watersheds and impair downstream water quality. However, little is known about the environmental drivers of nitrogen yields in major Arctic rivers, which have experienced rapid climatic changes and are important conduits of nutrients and organic matter to the Arctic Ocean. Here we analyze trends in nitrogen yields in the six largest Arctic rivers between 2003 and 2023 and develop generalized additive models to elucidate the watershed characteristics and climatic processes associated with observed spatial and interannual variability. We found significant increases in dissolved organic nitrogen yield and/or declines in dissolved inorganic nitrogen yield in four of the six rivers. While temperature and precipitation, via their relationships to discharge, enhance dissolved nitrogen yields, we attribute the diverging trends to the responses of inorganic and organic nitrogen to temperature via effects on permafrost free extent. Spatially, we attribute differences in nitrogen yields across watersheds to differences in land cover and temperature. Shifts in the amount and composition of river nitrogen yields will impact the balance between primary productivity and heterotrophy in nitrogen limited coastal Arctic Ocean ecosystems. Results from this work highlight the importance of climate-driven changes in temperature and precipitation on river nitrogen yields in large Arctic rivers and motivate further investigation into how permafrost loss and hydrological shifts interact to drive water quality and biogeochemical cycling in the region.