Multi-source assessment of drought risk in Lake Eğirdir under climate change

IF 4.1 3区地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Pub Date : 2025-07-17 DOI:10.1016/j.pce.2025.104030

Halil İbrahim Şenol , Oguz Simsek , Abdurahman Yasin Yiğit , Veysi Kartal

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

In this study, shoreline changes in Lake Eğirdir, Türkiye, were investigated over a 34-year period (1990–2024) through the application of remote sensing, GIS-based coastal analysis (DSAS- Digital Shoreline Analysis System) and statistical trend methodologies. Landsat images and meteorological data are analysed together to evaluate the relationship between climate variability and shoreline dynamics. The findings show that there is a significant shoreline erosion, especially in the northern and western regions, with the End Point Rate (EPR) values reaching −23.6 m/year and Linear Regression Rate (LRR) values reaching −11.23 m/year. According to the results of statistical trend analysis methods (Mann-Kendall-MK and Spearman Rho-SR) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) methods (sorted and unsorted), while the change in precipitation remained relatively constant, it was determined that the dominant factors contributing to water loss are significantly increasing temperature and potential evaporation (PET) trends. In addition, the most remarkable correlation between lake parameters and PET values is found. This research uniquely combines climate-induced hydrological stressors with shoreline displacement patterns, providing new insights into lake evolution compared to other studies. The results highlight the need for sustainable water management strategies and predictive modeling to mitigate future degradation.

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气候变化下Eğirdir湖干旱风险多源评估

本研究采用遥感、基于gis的海岸分析（DSAS- Digital shoreline analysis System）和统计趋势分析方法，对 rkiye湖Eğirdir 34年（1990-2024）的海岸线变化进行了研究。对陆地卫星图像和气象资料进行了综合分析，以评估气候变率与海岸线动态之间的关系。结果表明：以北部和西部地区为中心，岸线侵蚀明显，终点率（End Point Rate， EPR）达- 23.6 m/年，线性回归率（Linear Regression Rate， LRR）达- 11.23 m/年；根据统计趋势分析方法（Mann-Kendall-MK和Spearman Rho-SR）和创新趋势分析（ITA）方法（分类和未分类）的结果，在降水量变化保持相对恒定的情况下，确定了造成水分损失的主要因素是显著升高的温度和潜在蒸发（PET）趋势。此外，湖泊参数与PET值的相关性最为显著。这项研究独特地将气候引起的水文压力因素与海岸线位移模式结合起来，与其他研究相比，为湖泊演变提供了新的见解。研究结果强调了可持续水资源管理战略和预测建模的必要性，以减轻未来的退化。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

5.40

自引率

2.70%

发文量

176

审稿时长

31.6 weeks

期刊介绍： Physics and Chemistry of the Earth is an international interdisciplinary journal for the rapid publication of collections of refereed communications in separate thematic issues, either stemming from scientific meetings, or, especially compiled for the occasion. There is no restriction on the length of articles published in the journal. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth incorporates the separate Parts A, B and C which existed until the end of 2001. Please note: the Editors are unable to consider submissions that are not invited or linked to a thematic issue. Please do not submit unsolicited papers. The journal covers the following subject areas: -Solid Earth and Geodesy: (geology, geochemistry, tectonophysics, seismology, volcanology, palaeomagnetism and rock magnetism, electromagnetism and potential fields, marine and environmental geosciences as well as geodesy). -Hydrology, Oceans and Atmosphere: (hydrology and water resources research, engineering and management, oceanography and oceanic chemistry, shelf, sea, lake and river sciences, meteorology and atmospheric sciences incl. chemistry as well as climatology and glaciology). -Solar-Terrestrial and Planetary Science: (solar, heliospheric and solar-planetary sciences, geology, geophysics and atmospheric sciences of planets, satellites and small bodies as well as cosmochemistry and exobiology).