Effectiveness of the monovalent XBB.1.5 COVID-19 vaccines: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Abstract

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remains a public health concern even after its pandemic status officially ended on May 5, 2023, when XBB became the globally predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant. Amid population immunity, the benefit of the monovalent XBB.1.5 vaccines remains uncertain.

Methods: This systematic review searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials through November 30, 2024, for studies evaluating the effectiveness of XBB.1.5 vaccines in adults during the 2023-2024 season. Meta-analyses were conducted using a random-effects model (PROSPERO registration: CRD42024513730).

Results: Twenty-one eligible studies, with a total of 53,396,781 participants, were included. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) in the first month post-vaccination was 52.9 % (95 % CI: 47.6 %-57.6 %) against SARS-CoV-2 infection, 64.4 % (95 % CI: 59.3 %-68.9 %) against COVID-19-related hospitalization, and 77.3 % (95 % CI: 67.1 %-84.3 %) against COVID-19-related death. However, by the fifth month, VE declined to 26.7 %, 52.3 %, and 69.4 %, respectively. Notably, against the JN.1 variant that replaced XBB in December 2023, VE against infection, hospitalization, and death dropped significantly by 47 % (from 53.7 % to 28.3 %), 32 % (from 67.8 % to 46.2 %), and 26 % (from 77.3 % to 57.1 %), respectively. VE against hospitalization in individuals aged >60 years was not inferior to that in those aged <60 years (57.2 % versus 49.2 %; subgroup difference, p = 0.24).

Conclusion: XBB.1.5 vaccines provided substantial protection against severe COVID-19 outcomes in the 2023-2024 season prior to the emergence of the JN.1 variant. These findings underscore the need for updated COVID-19 vaccinations to maintain protection against evolving SARS-CoV-2 variants.