The impact of COVID-19 and public health measures on homicide and suicide trends in Botswana using an interrupted time series analysis.

IF 2.2 3区医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Injury Epidemiology Pub Date : 2025-07-21 DOI:10.1186/s40621-025-00592-y

Shathani Mugoma, Doug Wiebe, Peter S Larson, Yun Li, Gregory P Bisson

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Introduction: The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent public health measures on trends of homicide and suicide in various settings remain unclear. There has been little attention paid to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on trends of homicide and suicide in African countries.

Methods: We conducted an interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on monthly homicide and suicide trends in Botswana. Using forensic registers from the Forensic Pathology Unit of the Botswana Police Service, we compared mean incidence and trends before, during, and after the State of Emergency (SoE), stratifying by age and sex.

Results: Our study analyzed 2,225 autopsies from January 1, 2018, to September 30, 2022, comprising of 1,479 homicides and 746 suicides. Monthly autopsy rates were lower during the SoE (median 32, IQR: 11.5) compared to pre-SoE (40, IQR: 15.8) and post-SoE (46, IQR: 11.5) periods. Homicide rates were 28 (IQR: 7.5), 19 (IQR: 7), and 29.5 (IQR: 10) for pre-SoE, SoE, and post-SoE, respectively, while suicide rates were 12.5 (IQR: 4), 13 (IQR: 6), and 16.5 (IQR: 4.75).

Conclusions: Our findings indicate a reduction in homicide and suicide incidence during the SoE, with a return to pre-pandemic levels thereafter. Public health professionals can leverage these insights to identify actionable factors for reducing suicide and homicide risks in future crises.

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使用中断时间序列分析，研究COVID-19和公共卫生措施对博茨瓦纳杀人和自杀趋势的影响。

导言：COVID-19大流行和随后的公共卫生措施对各种环境中杀人和自杀趋势的影响尚不清楚。人们很少关注2019冠状病毒病大流行对非洲国家杀人和自杀趋势的影响。方法：我们进行了中断时间序列分析（ITSA），以评估COVID-19大流行对博茨瓦纳每月杀人和自杀趋势的影响。我们利用博茨瓦纳警察局法医病理学股的法医登记册，按年龄和性别分层，比较了紧急状态之前、期间和之后的平均发病率和趋势。结果：我们的研究分析了2018年1月1日至2022年9月30日期间的2225起尸检，其中包括1479起凶杀案和746起自杀案。SoE期间的月尸检率（中位数32，IQR: 11.5）低于SoE前（40,IQR: 15.8）和SoE后（46,IQR: 11.5）。自杀率分别为12.5 （IQR: 4）、13 （IQR: 6）和16.5 (IQR: 4.75)，自杀率分别为28 （IQR: 7.5）、19 （IQR: 7）和29.5 （IQR: 10）。结论：我们的研究结果表明，SoE期间杀人和自杀发生率下降，之后恢复到大流行前的水平。公共卫生专业人员可以利用这些见解来确定在未来危机中减少自杀和杀人风险的可行因素。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Injury Epidemiology Medicine-Medicine (all)

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

4.50%

发文量

审稿时长

13 weeks

期刊介绍： Injury Epidemiology is dedicated to advancing the scientific foundation for injury prevention and control through timely publication and dissemination of peer-reviewed research. Injury Epidemiology aims to be the premier venue for communicating epidemiologic studies of unintentional and intentional injuries, including, but not limited to, morbidity and mortality from motor vehicle crashes, drug overdose/poisoning, falls, drowning, fires/burns, iatrogenic injury, suicide, homicide, assaults, and abuse. We welcome investigations designed to understand the magnitude, distribution, determinants, causes, prevention, diagnosis, treatment, prognosis, and outcomes of injuries in specific population groups, geographic regions, and environmental settings (e.g., home, workplace, transport, recreation, sports, and urban/rural). Injury Epidemiology has a special focus on studies generating objective and practical knowledge that can be translated into interventions to reduce injury morbidity and mortality on a population level. Priority consideration will be given to manuscripts that feature contemporary theories and concepts, innovative methods, and novel techniques as applied to injury surveillance, risk assessment, development and implementation of effective interventions, and program and policy evaluation.