Comparing the applicability of de facto population markers for spatiotemporal trend analysis in wastewater-based epidemiology

Abstract

Wastewater-based epidemiology is an effective public health approach that enables early detection, monitoring, and assessment of community health trends by analysing human excretion products in wastewater. Here, accurate population normalization is essential to ensure correct exposure estimates. Prior work often assumes a fixed population size, which can lead to major over- or underestimation. To account for daily population fluctuations, dynamic population markers have been proposed including hydrochemical parameters, xenobiotics, biological markers, and mobile phone signalling records. This study compared the daily mass loads of 32 population markers with mobile phone derived population estimates in two Belgian cities. Weak to moderate Spearman correlations (Ir_sI ≤ 0.46) were found with the strongest correlation for MDMA (r_s = -0.46), and the lowest for Pepper Mild Mottle Virus (r_s = 0.03). A random forest regression model was applied to one city to evaluate the importance of these proxies. Model interpretability analysis indicated that certain psychoactive substances (MDMA, paraxanthine, hydroxybupropion) and the hydrochemical parameter chloride have potential as population markers. However, their applicability is influenced by sociodemographic factors and thus site-specific. Overall, their value lies in providing complementary information for multiparameter models rather than serving as a standalone population marker.