Historical changes in overtopping probability of dams in the United States

IF 14.7 1区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
Eunsaem Cho, Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, Gabriele Villarini, Amir AghaKouchak
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Abstract

With concerns about aging dams and nonstationary changes in hydrologic extremes (e.g., flooding), questions arise about whether existing dams may be at risk of failure and pose threats to society. Here, we analyzed 33 dams across the United States to investigate temporal trends in dam overtopping probabilities of annual maximum dam water levels. These dams were selected because of the availability of public domain long-term time series of uncontrolled water levels (50 years or longer). We applied updated stationary frequency analyses using generalized extreme value distributions on 30-year rolling periods from 1973 to 2022. The results revealed an overall increasing trend in the number of dams exhibiting critical overtopping probabilities (i.e., low, moderate and high) alongside a decline in the number of non-critical overtopping probabilities (i.e., very low) over time. This approach uncovered overtopping probabilities that traditional analyses based solely on dam water levels could not reveal. We identified six dams having the greatest overtopping probability, with several being located near large population centers, posing potential risks to the downstream communities. All six dams are classified as large and high-hazard potential. This study provides insights into dam management and risk assessment, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to mitigate potential threats.

Abstract Image

美国水坝超顶概率的历史变化
随着人们对水坝老化和水文极端变化(如洪水)的担忧,人们开始质疑现有水坝是否有倒塌的危险并对社会构成威胁。在这里,我们分析了美国各地的33座水坝,以调查水坝年最高水位超过可能性的时间趋势。之所以选择这些水坝,是因为公共领域有长期不受控制的水位序列(50年或更长时间)。我们应用更新的平稳频率分析,使用广义极值分布对1973年至2022年的30年滚动周期进行分析。结果显示,随着时间的推移,具有临界过顶概率(即低、中、高)的水坝数量总体呈增加趋势,而非临界过顶概率(即极低)的水坝数量则呈下降趋势。这种方法揭示了仅仅基于大坝水位的传统分析无法揭示的超额可能性。我们确定了六座大坝有最大的泛滥可能性,其中几座位于人口密集的中心附近,对下游社区构成潜在风险。所有六座大坝都被列为大型和高危险潜在。这项研究为大坝管理和风险评估提供了见解,强调了采取积极措施减轻潜在威胁的必要性。
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来源期刊
Nature Communications
Nature Communications Biological Science Disciplines-
CiteScore
24.90
自引率
2.40%
发文量
6928
审稿时长
3.7 months
期刊介绍: Nature Communications, an open-access journal, publishes high-quality research spanning all areas of the natural sciences. Papers featured in the journal showcase significant advances relevant to specialists in each respective field. With a 2-year impact factor of 16.6 (2022) and a median time of 8 days from submission to the first editorial decision, Nature Communications is committed to rapid dissemination of research findings. As a multidisciplinary journal, it welcomes contributions from biological, health, physical, chemical, Earth, social, mathematical, applied, and engineering sciences, aiming to highlight important breakthroughs within each domain.
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