The Spatial Spread and the Persistence of Gene Drives Are Affected by Demographic Feedbacks, Density Dependence and Allee Effects.

Abstract

Homing gene drive alleles bias their own transmission by converting wild-type alleles into drive alleles. If introduced in a natural population, they might fix within a relatively small number of generations, even if they are deleterious. No engineered homing gene drive organisms have been released in the wild so far, and modelling is essential to develop a clear understanding of the potential outcomes of such releases. We use deterministic models to investigate how different demographic features affect the spatial spread of a gene drive. Building on previous work, we first consider the effect of the intrinsic population growth rate on drive spread. We confirm that including demographic dynamics can change outcomes compared to a model ignoring changes in population sizes because changes in population density can oppose the spatial spread of a drive. Secondly, we study the consequences of including an Allee effect and find that it makes a population more prone to eradication following drive spread. Finally, we investigate the effects of the fitness component on which density dependence operates (fecundity or survival) and find that it affects the speed of drive invasion in space and can accentuate the consequences of an Allee effect. These results confirm the importance of checking the robustness of model outcomes to changes in the underlying assumptions, especially if models are to be used for gene drive risk assessment.