Multidecadal variability of the ENSO early-winter teleconnection to Europe and implications for seasonal forecasting

IF 8.5 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Pablo Fernández-Castillo, Teresa Losada, Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca, Diego García-Maroto, Elsa Mohino, Luis Durán
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Abstract

The impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the North Atlantic and European sector (NAE) climate are season-dependent and, in some cases, not linear and/or not stationary. Previous studies have found multidecadal variability in ENSO teleconnections to NAE in certain seasons, relating it to changes in the background state. However, the stationarity of the teleconnection and its surface impacts in Europe during early winter remain largely unexplored, a gap intended to be addressed in this study. The observational analysis reveals changes in the teleconnection impacts and mechanisms over recent decades. These changes have strong implications for the assessment of seasonal predictability, hence the performance of the SEAS5 seasonal prediction model is analysed. While SEAS5 does not accurately capture the observed non-stationarity, it displays pronounced multidecadal changes in forecast skill. This implies the emergence of windows of opportunity for seasonal forecasting, where predictability may be higher than initially expected.

Abstract Image

ENSO与欧洲早冬遥相关的多年代际变率及其对季节预报的影响
El Niño-Southern涛动(ENSO)对北大西洋和欧洲扇区(NAE)气候的影响是季节性的,在某些情况下,不是线性的和/或不是平稳的。先前的研究发现,ENSO与NAE的遥相关在某些季节存在多年代际变化,这与背景状态的变化有关。然而,远相关的平稳性及其在初冬期间对欧洲地表的影响在很大程度上仍未被探索,本研究旨在解决这一空白。观测分析揭示了近几十年来远相关影响和机制的变化。这些变化对季节可预测性的评估有很强的影响,因此分析了SEAS5季节预测模式的性能。虽然SEAS5不能准确地捕捉到观测到的非平稳性,但它在预测技巧上显示出明显的多年代际变化。这意味着季节预报出现了机会之窗,其可预测性可能高于最初的预期。
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来源期刊
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
8.80
自引率
3.30%
发文量
87
审稿时长
21 weeks
期刊介绍: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.
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