Revised estimates of temperature changes under net zero CO2 emissions

IF 8.5 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-07-19 DOI:10.1038/s41612-025-01148-z

Alex Borowiak, Andrew D. King, Josephine R. Brown, Tilo Ziehn

引用次数: 0

Abstract

It is critical that climate changes beyond net zero are well understood to inform policymaking. Here we present a new estimate of post-abrupt net zero CO₂ temperature changes using a method that filters for variability on multiple timescales. Our findings indicate that 50 years after abrupt emission cessation, the multi-model median temperature change is −0.19 °C, with a range spanning from −0.44 °C to 0.04 °C, which is cooler than previous estimates.

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对二氧化碳净零排放条件下温度变化的修正估计

至关重要的是，要充分了解净零之外的气候变化，以便为政策制定提供信息。在这里，我们提出了一个新的估计后突变净零二氧化碳温度变化使用的方法，过滤在多个时间尺度上的变异性。研究结果表明，在突变排放停止后50年，多模式中位温度变化为- 0.19°C，变化范围为- 0.44°C至0.04°C，比以前的估计要冷。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

21 weeks

期刊介绍： npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.