A sustainable decarbonisation roadmap for South African priority agro-processing sub-sectors

Abstract

South Africa's agro-processing industry is a major contributor to the country's export earnings, but runs on one of the world's most carbon-intensive power grids, which makes the industry itself carbon-intensive. With global population set to exceed 8.5 billion by 2030, escalating demand for low-carbon food collides with the sector's coal-weighted energy mix—turning a core economic asset into both a climate liability and a competitive weak point. Pending hikes in South Africa's Carbon Tax and the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will penalize carbon-heavy producers unless the sector transforms that liability into an advantage.

This paper reframes decarbonisation from a purely environmental imperative to a currency for trade competitiveness. Building on a soft-systems methodology and a synthesis of rapid- and industrial-decarbonisation frameworks, we propose a three-phase roadmap for fruit-and-vegetable processing, breweries, poultry, and sugarcane milling that (i) captures low-cost efficiency gains, (ii) scales renewables and circular bio-energy, and (iii) electrifies thermal processes to approach net-zero. Scenario analysis shows that failing to decarbonise could add cost to EU-bound exports by 2030, while proactive decarbonisation yields positive net-present value once avoided CBAM tariffs and Carbon Tax liabilities are internalised.

The roadmap defines clear, cost-effective technology and financing strategies while weaving in a just-transition perspective that protects rural communities as we pursue climate goals. By harnessing systems thinking across policy, finance, and industry practice, it creates a scalable roadmap for carbon-intensive, resource-limited economies to accelerate—and equitably achieve—their net-zero ambitions.

Finance-ready transition hinges on coherent policies—progressive carbon pricing, targeted incentives, and transparent reporting—working in concert with industry-led innovation. This roadmap equips policymakers, financiers, and plant managers with a concise playbook to sharpen South Africa's agro-processing competitiveness as the global economy races toward low-carbon solutions.