Decoupling carbon emissions, economic growth, and health costs toward carbon neutrality in China's regions

Abstract

In response to climate change, understanding regional and sectoral carbon emissions is essential for guiding China's low-carbon transition. This study analyzes carbon emission trends across provinces and industries in China from 2006 to 2020, covering the 11th to 13th Five-Year Plan (FYP) periods. Using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method and Tapio decoupling model, we identify key emission drivers and decoupling patterns. Results reveal significant regional disparities: carbon emissions in the Northwest increased by 55 % during the 12th FYP and 46 % in the 13th FYP, reaching 380 million tons, while the Beijing-Tianjin region saw only an 8 % increase and achieved strong decoupling in the 13th FYP. Economic growth remains the main driver of emissions, particularly in the Central and Northern Coast regions, whereas energy intensity and industrial restructuring play important mitigating roles. The share of health expenditures in GDP rose from 4.7 % to 7.1 %, with the Northwest region peaking at 9.1 %, indicating links between emissions and health costs. The findings offer practical insights for region-specific policy design, including energy structure optimization, technological upgrading, and public health considerations.