[Carbon Peak Prediction of Energy Consumption in China： Based on STIRPAT Extended Model].

Abstract

Achieving carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060 is the solemn commitment of the Chinese government to the international community. It is important to scientifically identify the key influencing factors and accurately predict carbon peak value and time for achieving the dual carbon targets in China. On the basis of the economic and energy consumption data from 1980 to 2022， a STIRPAT extended multivariate-nonlinear model was built， which was fitted by a ridge regression to examine the relationships between carbon emissions of energy consumption and seven influencing factors， including population， GDP per capita， energy intensity， secondary industry proportion， fossil energy proportion， electrification rate， and urbanization rate. Based on the proposed STIRPAT extended model， predictions of carbon emissions of energy consumption were made for the period from 2023-2035 under three different scenarios. The results showed that： ① There were five factors that increased the carbon emissions including population， urbanization rate， secondary industry proportion， GDP per capita， and electrification rate. The degree of influence decreased in turn. Fossil energy proportion and energy intensity were the two factors that restrained the carbon emissions. The influencing degree of fossil energy proportion was the biggest， and that of energy intensity was the smallest. ② During different stages of economic development， the roles and contributions of the seven factors changed significantly. In particular， the effects of energy intensity， secondary industry proportion， and fossil energy proportion resulted in the turning changes， which reflected the periodical characteristics of carbon emissions in different stages. ③ Carbon emissions of energy consumption will achieve a peak during 2028-2032 in China. The peak was 11.66-12.75 billion tons. Under the baseline scenario， the peak was 12.04 billion tons， which will be fulfilled in 2030. The peak of the low-carbon scenario was 11.66 billion tons in 2028， which was 3.16% lower than that of the baseline scenario. The peak of the high-carbon scenario was 12.75 billion tons in 2032， which was 5.90% higher than that of the baseline scenario. Based on the research results， reasonable suggestions such as accelerating renewable energy development， increasing the electrification rate， optimizing the economic structure， and improving energy efficiency are put forward to ensure that China will achieve its carbon peak target before 2030.