Impacts of human activities on vegetation dynamics amid climate change: A case study of the Hanjiang River Basin (China).

Abstract

Investigating the interplay between vegetation, climate change, and anthropogenic activities is essential for advancing global environmental research. The Hanjiang River Basin exhibits heightened susceptibility to anthropogenic influences that markedly alter its ecological dynamics. This study utilized MODIS NDVI data (2002-2022) alongside precipitation and temperature data to evaluate the distinct impacts of climatic factors and anthropogenic activities on NDVI variability by applying Pearson correlation and residual analysis. Additionally, the partial derivatives method quantified the individual contributions of each factor to NDVI changes. The research revealed that NDVI exhibited a consistent upward trend, particularly in the western regions, while urbanization in the mid-to-lower reaches, especially around Wuhan city, led to vegetation degradation. Mean NDVI increased from 0.8067 to 0.8467 between 2002 and 2022, corresponding to an average rate of 0.002 NDVI units per year. Temperature emerged as the primary climatic driver of NDVI fluctuations, with precipitation impacts varying across the basin. However, human activities were found to exert a more significant influence on vegetation dynamics than climatic factors. Hurst index analysis predicted a positive future trend in 58.11 % of the basin, but 41.89 % may face further degradation. This study highlights the dual effects of anthropogenic activities on vegetation under climate change, providing theoretical insights for robust ecological management and sustainable development strategies within the study area.