Assessment of projected changes in mean and extreme wave power across the Indian coastal sectors under high-emission climate scenarios

Abstract

Projected changes in oceanic and atmospheric conditions due to climate change necessitate a detailed assessment of future wave power (WP) variations along India’s extensive coastline for sustainable energy development and coastal adaptation. This study examines the projected changes in mean and extreme WP along the Indian coastline, with a regional focus on the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal, Lakshadweep, and Andaman and Nicobar Island, under future climate scenarios SSP126 and SSP585 for the period 2071–2100. The Arabian Sea and southern coastal regions exhibit considerable wave energy potential, but expected decreases in WP and increased variability index (VI) pose challenges for long-term exploitation. Key regions such as Gujarat, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and Lakshadweep demonstrate substantial variability in WP, with higher variability in future scenarios under SSP5–8.5. Site-specific assessments across 20 locations identified Veraval (Gujarat), Hut Bay (Andaman), and Agatti, Minicoy, and Kalpeni (Lakshadweep) as key sites with both high mean and extreme WP values, characterized by consistently elevated energy levels and stable variability indicating strong potential for reliable wave energy extraction. The findings underscore the importance of integrating climate change projections into strategic energy planning, with a focus on region-specific assessments to ensure sustainable and resilient wave energy development.